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Prediction for CME (2025-05-19T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-19T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38970/-1
CME Note: Large, bright CME first seen in the NW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-19T00:00Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a large filament eruption centered at approximately N50E10 with a gradual liftoff beginning at approximately 2025-05-18T19:00Z. This filament can be seen exhibiting some Northwestern deflection in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131 and 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-23T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38972/1
Model Inputs:
2025-05-19T00:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=51.0, Lat.=52.0, Speed=341.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2025-05-19T11:56Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-05-23T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-05-22T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250519_115600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 102.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-19T13:14Z

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